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Tom's avatar
Sep 29Edited

"Make no mistake: going from 9 points to 12 is a lot harder than going from 1 point to 9. When you get that deep into the enemy camp, you’re stuck trying to convert the enemy’s hardcore supporters. Since World War II, House elections have swung by at least 9 points on nearly a dozen occasions, but the swing has never reached 18 points."

You see a similar dynamic in presidential elections. Barring a charismatic 3rd-party candidate, each party has an almost guaranteed floor of 40% of the electorate, and a practical floor of 45% of the electorate. Indeed, most of the time each party can count on 47-48% of the electorate.

The dirty little secret of politics is that you're trying to sway that middle 4-6% of the electorate, and that particular slice votes almost entirely based on vibes and which side scares them the least.

Mike W's avatar

I hope you enjoyed writing “Trump’s bottom is still in” as much as I enjoyed reading it!

Jason M's avatar

Not all Catholics are biblically illiterate!

I immediately recognized that quote as from the deuterocanonical book of Lukoil, chapter 22. Note also that the same passage exists with very similar wording in mARCO 14 and Marathon 26, as these are the synoptic books of the Deuterocanon.

James J. Heaney's avatar

Thank God and St. Honorius of Amiens that SOMEBODY out there is still doing good catechesis!