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Tarb's avatar

“I also find it interesting (but, again, sample size insufficient) to note that the three Republicans who ran for U.S. Senate as pro-choicers (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Tiffany Smiley of Washington, and Joe O’Dea of Colorado) performed substantially worse than their peers, even their Trump-aligned peers."

Can you clarify why you feel Lisa Murkowski performed substantially worse than her peers? You went into no detail about it, only discussing Joe O'Dea. Alaska's ranked choice voting system makes it harder to compare its election results to those of other states--but Murkowski in the general election did defeat the Trump-aligned, pro-life Kelly Tshibaka.

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John13's avatar

"At this point I think it entirely likely that the Democrats hold the Presidency, and take back the house by a healthy margin in 24. I think there is a good possibility they hold the Senate even though that path is hard for them, and Dobbs gets all of the credit. -John13"

I meant to respond at the time of your writing, but every time I typed something out, it was just speculative. In the end, I made a calendar reminder to come revisit things today. We have some differing views on the extent gerrymanders played in some House races, but I feel very little motivation to revise what is quoted above. The Dobbs effect seems undeniable at this point, and whil holding the Senate is still perilous, the signs are there that it could happen tonight. We both know this is not a coin flip, it is a polling error away from a landslide, and as of right now Harris appears to be pulling away in Iowa which primes a blue wave.

At least according to me.

We will know tomorrow.

I just read your essay about the various referendums, and those have been on my mind as well. I think the only possible loss is Florida, but I am not giving up hope there either. Even if it does fail, it could take down Scott, which is a pretty decent silver lining from my perspective.

A few moments ago, I read that Trump won't say which way he actually voted on the referendum and whined that the reporters should stop asking him about it. That seems like a pretty good snapshot of where the GOP is on abortion going forward. This could be blustery on my part. I figured I should say it now, to put a little skin in the game. It sure feels like the polls needed to weight Dobbs, and women a lot higher.

You might want to preload the Tums. I am considering doing the same.

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