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Michael Blissenbach's avatar

I think making the U.S. Senate function like the German Bundesrat would fix the problems. James, have you looked at how the Bundesrat works? It seems to work well to present the voices of the different German states in the German parliament.

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Christopher M. Russo's avatar

James,

Count me among those "pro-filibuster moderates." However, I think there are more than a "small handful" of such Republicans in the Senate. During his first term, Pres. Trump repeatedly called for the Senate Republican majority to end the legislative filibuster. He was repeatedly rebuffed.

Then-Senate Majority Leader McConnell gets the brunt of the blame (or praise) for this action, but the legislative filibuster was broadly supported by Republican members. And the legislative filibuster continues to have support. Just after the 2024 election, Senate Republicans (including some of Pres. Trump's allies) preemptively announced that they would not weaken the filibuster.

I do not see the current use of the filibuster as abusive. The filibuster effectively imposes a supermajority requirement to pass most major legislation. This is a good thing! Slim, temporary, and partisan majorities in Congress should not be able to radically overhaul our nation's laws. It is good that such consequential changes require broad, enduring, and bipartisan consensus.

I think the 1964 Civil Rights Act is a key example. You mention filibuster abuses during this period, and I am not well enough versed in the history to dispute you. Nonetheless, the Civil Rights Act ultimately passed the Senate with a 73-27 vote, comfortably above the two-thirds threshold for cloture required at the time. (The cloture vote itself was 71-29.)

While the Civil Rights Act was a highly contentious issue at the time, the issue has (more or less) been put to bed. To my knowledge, there have been no serious efforts to repeal the Civil Rights Act since its passage. Conversely, in a universe without the filibuster, a much different Civil Rights Act would have been passed, and I presume we would still be fighting about it today.

(I don't mean to imply that there is no dispute about the application of the Civil Rights Act itself. Notably, after 50 years of splits in the circuit courts, the Supreme Court recently had to step in to clarify that, yes, the protections of the Civil Rights Act apply the same to everyone equally.)

In this way, I see the filibuster as reducing political conflict, not raising it. Imagine if the fundamental character of our country's laws was determined every two years by a handful of House races in purple districts and Senate races in purple states. Note, this problem would be exacerbated by gelding the veto, as you suggest elsewhere. Decreasing the threshold for one party to exercise unilateral control increases the probability this happens.

Conversely, I do not think there is much value in the "cooling off" function. Suppose the Senate Democratic majority eliminated the filibuster at the start of Pres. Biden's term by lowering the threshold for cloture to a simple majority. I do not think the requisite 30 hours of "debate" would have dissuaded Senate Democrats from passing their key legislative priorities. Some examples:

• H.R. 1 (a hodgepodge of progressive priorities on "voting rights," campaign finance, etc.)

• H.R. 4 (federal takeover of elections)

• H.R. 5 (dramatic expansion of the scope of the Civil Rights Act)

• H.R. 6 (retroactive legalization of Pres. Obama's DACA program)

• H.R. 7 (criminalization of the "gender pay gap" as disparate-impact type discrimination)

• H.R. 51 (DC admitted as a state)

• H.R. 127 (federal licensing and public database of gun owners; bans ammo above .50 cal)

• H.R. 1522 (Puerto Rico admitted as a state)

• H.R. 1976 (socialized medicine vis a vis "Medicare for All")

Instead, Senate Democrats actually had to negotiate with Republicans on important issues. And it turns out, Republicans and Democrats were able to compromise on some controversial topics.

• No federal takeover of elections, but sensible reforms to the Electoral Count Act after Jan 6.

• No public database of gun owners, but some improvements to background checks, funding for mental health, funding for school safety, and guns taken away from domestic abusers.

• No inclusion of LGBT in the Civil Rights Act, but national recognition of same-sex marriages.

• No Green New Deal, but investment in U.S. infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing.

Conversely, I think we see the negative consequences of the filibuster's absence in presidential appointments to the executive branch and the judiciary. Senate Democrats wanted to confirm radical appointments by Pres. Obama, Republicans were opposed, and Democrats nuked that part of the filibuster. As an exercise, come up with your five worst nominees confirmed during the Trump and Biden admins. Would they have gotten through a 60-vote cloture? Probably not.

I think we also see the negative consequences of the filibuster's absence in reconciliation bills, but this comment is already too long. I will leave it as a question to the reader whether they think it is positive or negative that one party can increase the deficit by trillions of dollars when, by luck of the election, that party happens to win the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

When people talk about eliminating the filibuster for some important purpose, I am reminded of the line you quoted from "A Man for All Seasons": "Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat?" Or as Sen. McConnell said, "You’ll regret this, and you may regret this a lot sooner than you think."

Finally, as a minor and unrelated point, Congressional Republicans have "conferences" not "caucuses." E.g., I would write, "Republicans are restrained only by the small handful of pro-filibuster moderates left in their conference." I presume this distinction once meant something.

Excellent article, as always!

Chris

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