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Gabriel K's avatar

I know this is unrelated to the article in question, but I'd like to hear your final midterm predictions. Mine are that Dems win 237 House seats and 52 Senate.

Evan Þ's avatar

But the election itself is SOON, so... are you just letting yourself not predict but retrodict? :D

James J. Heaney's avatar

Still 10 days out! When have I ever posted an election preview that early? Usually I'm still typing after polls have opened!

2024: just after midnight on election day: https://decivitate.jamesjheaney.com/p/election-night-preview-2024-general

2022: 11 AM on election day: https://decivitate.jamesjheaney.com/p/election-night-preview-2022-edition

2020: 2:36 PM (!) on election day: https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2020/11/03/three-ways-to-watch-the-election-returns-2020-pandemic-edition/

2016: just after midnight on election day: https://ropersanchor.jamesjheaney.com/2016/11/08/trump-brexit-and-our-uncertain-election/

So, actually, if you take the long view, I've been *improving* for the past three cycles, and, if that pattern continues, this year I might, be some miracle, manage to publish the election preview as early as the day BEFORE election day! Election eve, you might say.

But, as any polling aggregator will warn you, trends are as likely to break as hold. :D

EDIT: sneak preview of my election preview: yes, I am definitely going to use the Brexit thingy again