LIVEBLOG: The DNC Rules Committee Meeting [Update: blog finished]
Friday at 10:00 AM Central! Details and link within!
UPDATE: Meeting’s over, so I’m posting the transcript of my liveblog at the bottom of the original post! Scroll down to see it. Now, the original post:
As discussed in my recent post “How To Stop An Exploding President,” the Democrats’ options for dealing with President Biden’s campaign for re-election will be largely enabled (or constrained) by the outcome of an obscure Rules Committee meeting tomorrow morning that nobody is going to be watching. The DNC Convention Rules Committee (a 186-member committee co-chaired by MN Gov. Tim Walz) will determine the officers and final rules of procedure for the Democratic National Convention and nominating process.
Control of the rules equals control of the outcome, so this is for all the marbles right here. A serious setback tomorrow could force Joe Biden out of the race (assuming he would rather withdraw than lose a humiliating convention floor vote).
I will be watching this obscure meeting… and I will liveblog it.
My last liveblog (of the MN Supreme Court’s arguments about disqualifying Donald Trump) went poorly. I spent all my time on “play-by-play” commentary. This was boring and added no value, since anyone could just watch the stream. Also, the liveblogging was on Twitter, a nightmare of user experience, where readers had to refresh every minute or two to see if there was a new post.
For tomorrow’s liveblog, I will assume you are watching the livestream and stick to color commentary. You’ll see what the delegates are doing, but I will give my best explanation as to why (even if I’m guessing!).
I’m also trying a new live blog software, 24LiveBlog, which promises real-time page updates (no need to refresh!), audible notifications (so you can keep working at your day job between updates), and live comments (in case you want to ask questions / chat with me or the other 2-3 viewers I expect).
You can catch the De Civitate DNC Convention Rules Committee Liveblog here:
The liveblog should turn on at 9 AM Central, but I don’t expect to start actually blogging until just before 10 AM Central (11 Eastern / 9 Mountain / 8 Pacific / 4 PM British).
You will also want to pull up the actual DNC Rules Committee meeting livestream, so you can watch it alongside the liveblog! Here it is:
Things have changed direction massively in the past few days since I posted “How To Stop An Exploding President.” Internal forces in the Democratic Party devoted to stopping Biden have shown their hands in a big way. Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and Schiff have all come out swinging against him, and the pressure seems to be finally penetrating Bidenworld. Surely (surely!) these party grandees have allies on the convention rules committee, and a plan to execute. I was always going to liveblog this, but my pessimistic/decadent prediction that it would be a snoozefest, and that the Democrats would sleepwalk into a guaranteed Biden rematch because they’ve forgotten how to use their own power, may yet turn out to be wrong. It might be quite a show after all.
But it will all be in obscure rules-ese, deliberately obfuscated to prevent anyone from seeing the deeper agendas, and, although I’m no Josh Putnam, I’m not putting any of this behind my paywall. Out in the open, I will do my best to unpack the Democratic Party Civil War for you in real time.
If this sounds like your idea of a good way to spend a Friday morning, I’ll see you tomorrow at 10 AM Central time at the liveblog!
NOTE: To preserve everybody’s inbox from getting spammed, I will not send out another email at 10 AM tomorrow reminding you to log on. If this sounds like fun, you’ll have to set your own cell phone alarm or whatever. My next communication should be from the liveblog itself tomorrow morning!
Update: Liveblog Transcript
9:41 AM
Hello world!
Good morning! Here's a link to the livestream I'll be color-commentating in just about 19 minutes:
9:50
Reminder: Strategies: Pro-Biden
Before we get started, let's review what the two sides (pro-Biden and anti-Biden) should (in my opinion) be trying to accomplish today.
Pro-Biden
The Biden Camp's two main objectives are (IMO) to create and (especially) protect obstacles to the opposition, and to secure the legal nomination as quickly as possible. We should see them pursue tactics like these:
Secure a virtual roll call at the earliest possible date.
Appoint pro-Biden convention officers.
Clarify in the rules that the “substantial support” described in Rule VI means substantial support in a Democratic presidential primary. This would at least nominally exclude everyone except, arguably, Kamala Harris.
Fight other rule changes of all kinds, arguing that the rules have worked well at previous conventions and that innovation is dangerous. Overall, current rules work nicely to Biden's advantage, and anyone trying to change them should be presumed working for the opposition until proved innocent.
In one sense, Biden’s position is easier than that of the challengers: his top priorities are mostly to make sure things keep going the way they are already going. This requires little imagination and can bank heavily on status quo bias at the Rules Committee and among the delegates.
On the other hand, Biden kind of needs to win whatever fights he picks. If he loses battles, he loses the inertia and aura of inevitability that are his greatest assets right now. If the opposition manages to produce a minority report, he will have to make his case to actual delegates and fight at least one real battle in the open. Better to have that battle than surrender the rules to the opposition, and better to fight it at a virtual convention instead of a live one, but Biden must work much harder than his opposition to maintain the appearance of unity.
The Biden camp has already had to make a concession: after huge public backlash earlier this week, they had to promise not to attempt a virtual roll call until the first week of August at the soonest. However, that's still two weeks before the convention, and is exactly what I would have bargained for if I were Camp Biden.
Anti-Biden
The anti-Biden camp's objective (in my view) should basically be to open the convention. That is done mainly by pursuing clarity in, and even some substantive changes to, the rules. The rules are ambiguous in several places, and ambiguity helps the candidate with massive inertia: Joe Biden.
How to get there, in my opinion (note that this is word-for-word from my post earlier this week, How To Stop An Exploding President):
Clarify the criteria for nomination. In particular, strip the DNC Chairman of the authority to determine who counts as a “presidential candidate” under Rule VI (and Delegate Rule 13.K). Instead, guarantee that anyone who can get 300 names on a nominating petition can be put into nomination (and have their votes counted).
Appoint a convention chairperson who strongly supports replacing Biden. The convention chairperson will resolve rules disputes, which will be explosive in any attempt to open the convention. A third rule from the James J. Heaney Institute of Politics Ain’t Beanbag: control over rules disputes is control of the rules (and you already know that control of the rules is control of the outcome).
Assuming your side succeeds in controlling the convention chair, clarify and expand the convention chairperson’s powers under Rules IX.E and IX.I, explicitly allowing her to override the judgment of, say, the DNC Chairman.
Regardless (but especially if your side does not control the convention chair), clarify and expand the authority of the delegates as a body to overrule convention officers. Allow them to carry motions by simple majority (rather than by two-thirds majority). Provide clear mechanisms for bringing such motions and enforceable rules for recognition. (In other words, gut Rules IX.J and IX.K.)
Protect the “in all good conscience” rule (IX.F.3.d) as it is currently written, with no enforcement mechanism.
Fight against the virtual roll call and insist on an in-person convention, accepting Ohio’s new law as a “sure thing” and “not a good reason to disrupt the time-honored Democratic nomination process.” (I think Ohio’s law is a sure thing, but, even if it weren’t, the Democratic nominee doesn’t need Ohio! This is a dumb reason for a virtual roll call!) As someone who works remotely for my day job, but who has been on a few convention floors during contested nominations, take it from me: you can do a lot of things well remotely, but managing the currents and arguments (and chaos) of an open convention is not one of them. You really want to be in a room with the other delegates, pressing flesh and starting discussions. Otherwise, the presumptive nominee’s inertia tends to assert itself. (Also, you want to buy as much time as possible so you can court delegates, build out your convention-floor organization, and let Biden melt down further.)
Clarify other ambiguities in the rules. For example, who can make a motion to suspend the rules, and what compels the convention chairwoman to recognize it? Vague rules help the presumptive nominee, who has (again) immense inertia on his side. Clear rules help everybody else, by creating a fair game on a level playing field.
Anticipate and resolve (or empower convention officers on your side to resolve) logistical problems with an open nominating process in a body that has not held an open nominating process since 1968 and whose institutional memory of how to pull off an open nomination have completely atrophied. (Nearly everyone who was a delegate to the 1968 convention is dead, and even most of the people around for the minor rules tussles of the 1980s are dead, too.) For example, how can you make sure roll call votes are tabulated quickly and accurately, given that you might have 10 very tense roll calls instead of the typical 1 ceremonial roll call?
10:02
Another Factor: State Binding Laws
Another factor I haven't mentioned yet in anything I've written so far (because I am dumb and forgot about it) is that delegates don't just have to worry about binding by the party. Some states (about a third of them, according to Ballotpedia) also bind delegates by state law.
Usually, the law says something like, the delegates must vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged unless:
the candidate withdraws, or
the candidate gets less than 35% of votes on the floor, or
two ballots have been cast on the convention floor
But laws vary significantly in the details.
In particular, some laws take the form of a mere signed pledge, which is binding only in conscience. Others take the form of an oath, which is obviously a stronger bind on the conscience. Some might (I haven't checked them all) actually punish delegates by law for violating their binding.
It's not like a majority of delegates are bound to vote for Biden on the floor and so he's inevitable, but this is another obstacle that anti-Biden forces will need to overcome, and I'm not sure what their plan for doing that might be. (Require the nominee to win three votes in a row, liberating all the delegates bound to vote for their pledged guy twice?)
This kind of thing is, of course, a big reason why Democrats' preferred course is just to get Biden to withdraw through social pressure.
Alright, 10:01 AM. Stream should be starting any second now.
One final reminder: I'm no Democratic insider. I've read the rules, I have them open here, and I'm a big nerd. I'll do my best to offer color commentary, but my lack of knowledge of both Democratic precedents and DNC internal politics means I may make mistakes. Fingers crossed and thanks for your patience.
10:07
Any Minute Now...
Here's your first bit of color commentary: the June 4 meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee (a related BUT DIFFERENT committee) didn't start streaming until 7 minutes past the hour, and didn't gavel in until 8 or 9 minutes past the hour.
Still, I figured we'd be online by now for such a key meeting, but, on the other hand, maybe that's the reason for the delay.
10:13
Background: The Convention Rules Committee
There are two Democratic Rules Committees: the Democratic National Committee's Standing Committee on Rules & By-Laws, which is a permanent committee chaired by Minyon Moore and Jim Roosevelt, with 30-some members. That committee met on June 4 and voted to give THIS committee absolute power over the rules of the Democratic National Convention this year.
THIS committee is the Democratic National Convention Standing Rules Committee, with (off the top of my head?) 186 members, most (but not necessarily all) delegates, chaired by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Bishop Leah Daughtry. (She is bishop in an obscure sect, apparently Protestant, that I've never heard of, but her Wiki says she's very active in Democratic party politics.) This committee gets to decide all the rules for this year's convention, courtesy of the Democratic National Committee.
Usage note: "Democratic National Committee" and "Democratic National Convention" both abbreviate to "DNC," which is confusing. In this blog, I will use "DNC" to refer to the Democratic National Committee (which governs the party between and now even during conventions), and I will just call the convention "the Convention."
Annnnnnnd they've now delayed the stream until 10:15 AM. Hopefully that will be our only delay, but who knows? Lots riding on this meeting for lots of people. Sitting tight!
10:18
We're On
Bishop Daughtry has called the meeting to order. Now some speechifying, perhaps in part because this large committee has never met before and not everybody knows everybody else.
10:20
No Votes Today!
Bishop Daughtry announces that the Rules Committee intends to take zero votes today, but plans to meet again and do the actual voting. This is not a huge shock, as it was suggested in a letter to the delegates earlier this week, but it's still an unprecedented (?) acknowledgment that things this year are WEIRD and they have a lot to do.
They're also still talking about the virtual roll call as a done deal, still. That's Joementum right there.
10:25
Jaime Harrison Covers His Butt
The Chairman of the DNC is insisting that the virtual roll call be held to ensure Biden is on all 50 states in order to work around shenanigans in Ohio. He reminds us that the virtual roll call was planned BEFORE the debate, so (implicitly) clearly has nothing at all to do with Biden blowing up.
As I talked about in How To Stop An Exploding President, and as Nate Silver spent the week yelling at Harrison's twitter, this is basically nonsense. Ohio fixed its problem. They kept this, I think, to increase the power of the Rules Committee, and now it's suddenly super important for Joe Biden after the debate blew up.
Harrison also focuses on Trump-Vance, no mention of any issues or contentions within the party. Very strong Joementum.
10:27
Walz Lays Down Track
Gov. Walz just set out an agenda where the Committee will just spend this meeting listening to lectures about how completely okay and great the virtual roll call is going to be. Hoo boy. Unclear whether anti-Biden opposition is even going to get a word in edgewise at today's meeting, and, with all votes deferred, this may well devolve into the snoozefest I feared.
Quorum established, so now they're bringing a campaign lawyer on.
10:34
A Desperate Attempt To Convince The Delegates...
...that there are problems with ballot access in Washington and Oklahoma in addition to Ohio. This is all pretty much post hoc justification for maintaining the virtual roll call.
"[Republicans] can challenge and will challenge" ballot certifications, "regardless of the strength of their cases." Well, yes, probably. (Democrats do the same: see state party chair's Ken Martin's attempt to block Donald Trump from the 2020 ballot in Minnesota.) But, since the challenges are legal garbage, they'll lose. There's no risk here, but this lawyer is creating as much risk in the minds of delegates as possible to build support for a virtual roll call... which helps President Biden.
It seems increasingly clear that this whole meeting is a strong push by pro-Biden forces to get everything Biden wants to secure his nomination. This could be just the inertia of a dead campaign, with campaign surrogates playing out the string while their guy makes his decision. But it also suggests that perhaps reports of Biden's campaign death are somewhat exaggerated.
10:39
Bishop Daughtry Gives Some Dates
Color commentary: I am not clear on what the purpose of that presentation was.
This might be a good moment to get a snack if you're so inclined.
10:44
Virtual Roll Call How-To
DNC Secretary Rae giving an overview of remote electronic voting, with a technical guy coming after to talk through details. He's describing the last (EDIT: and first!) time the DNC did a virtual roll call: 2020, as a result of the covid pandemic.
Voting over the Internet is one of those things that should generally make your hair stand on end. As a software developer interested in elections, I fully endorse this XKCD cartoon:
However! The Democratic virtual roll call actually works pretty well, or seemed to, and there's no real reason to fear it. Because the number of voters is very limited, and (above all) votes are public information, you can actually have a virtual roll call with reliable voting. There aren't good technical reasons to prevent the virtual roll call. There are only political reasons. Short-term political reasons: because the virtual roll call helps Biden. Long-term reasons: because the virtual roll call impedes the delegates from effectively governing the party.
10:55
Conventions Are Pointless
That's the (unfriendly) summary of DNCC1 Executive Director Alex Hornbrook's explanation of the convention so far. Since they're pushing hard for the virtual roll call (which makes the convention pointless, as its main work will be completed online), Hornbrook is talking about the convention solely as an opportunity to "tell Americans what we're all about." It's a 5,000-person photo op, in his eyes.
This is, to be fair, what every party official believes, on both the DNC and RNC. Delegates and conventions used to be true seats of power, but, since the 1970s (starting with the Democrats' formation of the DNC in 1972), they have gradually ceded that power to narrow committees that were created (at first) to manage minor affairs between conventions, but which now are clearly wearing the pants. Now the conventions have very little power, and the virtual roll call severs one of the final links between "meeting at a convention" and "actually accomplishing anything that means anything at all." So Hornbrook's presentation appears to be aimed at salving fears that the convention will be pointless if there's a virtual roll call.
The problem for his presentation is that the convention is pointless if there's a virtual roll call.
Again, though, this is not a Joe versus the Opposition issue. This is a classic National Committee versus The Convention power struggle, something we see every four years on both sides. (The Committee always wins.)
11:03
Rules!
We are now 45 minutes into this Rules Committee meeting, and Bishop Daughtry is at last talking about the rules for the first time!
Key points:
The rules will be as similar as possible to the 2024 Call to Convention. If ratified, that would be a huge win for Camp Biden, which gets large advantages from the current rules as the presumptive nominee.
The rules will include a virtual roll call, date to be determined by DNC Chairman Harrison, no earlier than August 1 (but also probably no later). Also a huge win for Biden. This is everything he wants.
These draft rules are exactly what the Biden Campaign would dictate. However, they haven't been finished yet, and will have to be voted on by the Rules Committee (apparently next week).
11:05
Q&A: Challengers
A delegate (I missed her name) asked about challengers to Biden. Daughtry said, basically, no, because any competitor would need to have the verified support of hundreds of delegates, and there isn't a clear way to certify that right now under the virtual roll call system. But, again, rules won't be finalized until voted upon.
11:07
Q&A: Superdelegates
Delegate Courtney French asked whether superdelegates get to vote in the first round. Answer: yes. Because Biden has the pledged support of an absolute majority of delegates, using only pledged delegates, and superdelegates can't affect the outcome, they get to vote.
Of course, the assumption that superdelegates can't affect the outcome assumes the pledged delegates actually follow their pledges. That's exactly what's at issue this year.
11:09
Q&A: Ballot Design
I missed names once again, but one of the lawyer types confirmed that the virtual ballot will include only two options: Joe Biden, and Present. (EDIT: not a surprise, given previous answers.)
Seriously, if you want to stop Biden, you HAVE to stop these rules, and you REALLY WANT to block the virtual roll call altogether.
I'm a conservative double-hater, so I don't care, but, Democrats, you can't trust your leadership's good faith here. The experts on this committee are 100% ridin' with Biden and they are railroading him into the nomination as best they can.
11:11
Closing Up
Delegates have apparently asked all the questions they want to ask, so this meeting is closing up. Daughtry now doing the recess ceremonies.
There is no date yet for the next meeting! Just "by July 26" (next Friday), with minimum 48 hours' notice before the next meeting.
11:15
And We're Done!
Meeting officially recessed, with nothing accomplished, but the DNC has made its very best possible case to the delegates for letting Biden sleepwalk into the nomination without a challenge. Delegates seemed disorganized and confused, which is how the DNC likes 'em, and there was no evidence -- at all -- that Pelosi, Schumer, or others in the anti-Biden coalition have done any work to organize these delegates.
I still think it's more likely than not that Biden drops out, but this meeting seems like good evidence that p(drop) is lower than conventional wisdom. Polymarket has it at 80% right now. I'd sell at that price, and might even head over to Kalshi (where I have a few dollars), find a good "Biden drop out" proxy market, and buy a few shares. Joe's opposition has full control of the media, but Joe's campaign clearly has full control of the rules, at least as of today. The second matters a hell of a lot more than the first.
Thanks for tuning in! I may or may not be able to livestream the next meeting, since I will be traveling next Friday morning. Hopefully they hold it earlier than that and I can carve some time out of work, but we will see.
Democratic National Convention Committee, which is a committee of the DNC (the Democratic National Committee) whose job is to facilitate the Democratic National Convention. So, to be clear: the DNCC’s function is to help the DNC make the (other) DNC happen. Seriously, guys, y’all need better acronyms.
Well, this looks different after today's news. I guess now we see why they didn't do anything yet.
Dratz! I had queued up these last two posts to read tonight and missed my chance to join the live stream itself! This format posted here seemed clean and easy, hopefully the “live” part of the live blog went easily enough for you as well and it can remain an option for the future.